Analysis of global Asthma/COPD pharmaceutical market structure and trend under haze

Asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (Asthma/COPD) is a common chronic disease. Once the disease is ill, it usually needs long-term medication, which seriously affects people's quality of life.

Globally, there are about 334 million asthmatic patients and about 328 million COPD patients. It is estimated that in 2030, COPD will become the third largest fatal disease in the United States.

At present, there are many kinds of drugs used in the treatment of Asthma/COPD. In this paper, we take the global listed brand drugs as an example to analyze the 2015-2020 year global Asthma/COPD pharmaceutical market pattern and trend of change.

The overall market is stable and steady, and the pattern changes are not obvious.

In 2015, the Asthma/COPD global brand drug market was US $24 billion 460 million. According to the prediction of Clarivate Analytics Cortellis, the overall market of brand drugs will remain at around us $26 billion 60 million in 2020, and the market will grow steadily.

From the perspective of drug category, "long-acting beta agonist / corticosteroid" (LABA/ICS) is the "overlord" in this field. In 2015, the brand name drug market was US $10 billion 350 million, accounting for 42.3% of the total market. It is expected that in 2020, LABA/ICS drugs still dominate the overall pharmaceutical market of Asthma/COPD, but the total market will fall to $7 billion 212 million, and the market share will fall to 27.7%.

Biologics (new cytokine regulators), "long acting M receptor agonists / long effect beta agonists" (LAMA/LABA) have increased significantly, and market share is expected to increase to 8.5% and 8%, respectively.

The market share of long acting M receptor agonist (LAMA), corticosteroid (ICS), short effect beta agonist (SABA), long effect beta agonist (LABA), and other conventional drugs have basically remained unchanged.

Seven kinds and distinctive features

One, LABA/ICS, LABA: the unquestionable hegemon

Long acting beta agonists / corticosteroids (LABA/ICS) occupy a dominant position in the overall market of Asthma/COPD. The main drugs are Advair, Symbicort and Breo.

In 2015, the 2 best selling varieties were GSK Advair (Shah Mette Lo / fluticasone) and AZ Symbicort (formoterol / budesonide). Among them, Advair was first listed in 1999, the world's first LABA/ICS drug, with sales of up to $5 billion 661 million in 2015 and the world's best - selling anti Asthma/COPD drug; Symbicort was followed by a market sale of about $3 billion 704 million in 2015.

Despite the strong performance of the two drugs market, Advair and Symbicort will face two pressures in the future.

Competition of generic drugs;

Competition for new products: Breo (Wei Lan / fluticasone), the first LABA/ICS drug that needs to be given only once a day in the world (Wei Lan / fluticasone); a combination of new drugs, such as Ultibro and Anoro, to improve the lung function of patients with COPD.

LABA/ICS is expected to dominate the whole field in 2020, but the market share will fall to $7 billion 212 million in 2020 and market share will fall to 27.7% from 42.3% in 2015, due to the risk of causing severe asthma attacks and increasing asthma mortality. In terms of products, the market of Advair and Symbicort will be reduced to 2 billion 106 million US dollars and 27.61 US dollars respectively. Breo with better compliance will increase from $392 million in 2015 to $1 billion 869 million in 2020.

Ref:Cortellis Compepetive Intelligence

For LABA drugs, it is currently only used for COPD treatment. In asthma, it is mainly used in combination with other drugs for asthma control. Although a new super long LABA drug, such as Arcapta (Indatero) and Striverdi (O Datlow), which only need to be used only once a day, such as Arcapta (Indatero), and so on, the market of LABA drugs will not increase greatly in the future with the competition of better clinical effects such as LAMAs, LABA/ICS, LAMA/LABA and other drugs.

In 2015, the market for LABA drugs accounted for 823 million US dollars, accounting for 3.4% of the total market. It is estimated that the market will be sold for 846 million US dollars in 2020, and the market share will be maintained at around 3.2%, which is basically the same as that in 2015.

Two, long acting M receptor agonists (LAMAs): the "two masters" should not be underestimated.

Asthma/COPD ranked second in the overall brand drug market, LAMAs. In 2015, LAMAs market sales accounted for 4 billion 205 million US dollars, accounting for 17.6%. The main drugs are Spiriva, Incruse, Seebri and so on.

Among them, the most notable is the Spiriva (thiotropium bromide), which is the First-in-class of LAMAs, once a day, and is the best in the market of such drugs. In 2015, the drug market was US $3 billion 944 million, and it is expected to be maintained at around us $3 billion in 2020.

The European patent of Spiriva expires in December 2016 and the US patent is due to expire in January 2018. The product is expected to pose a threat to the Spiriva in the near future.

Like Advair, Spiriva will face competition pressure from other drugs in the future.

Competition of new LAMA/LABA drugs such as Ultibro and Anoro;

Competition between Stiolto (tiotropium bromide / O Datlow) and super long-acting LABA Arcapta;

Nevertheless, it is estimated that the overall market share of LAMAs is about 16.9% in 2020, and its position as "two masters" is hard to shake.

Three, corticosteroid /ICS: the "first line" of low profile

Corticosteroids are widely used in the treatment of COPD in areas outside the United States for the prevention and treatment of asthma. In 2015, Pulmicort (budesonide) and Flovent (fluticasone) sold for 1 billion 14 million and 952 million US dollars respectively. The sales of the two are expected in 2020.